Putin tactics for invasion laid bare: Kremlin ‘will want to move before winter ice thaws’ | World | News


Russia-Ukraine: Moscow is creating ‘new normal’ says NATO

Ukraine and the West remain sceptical about Russia‘s withdrawal of some troops from its border regions. While Russian defence ministry pictures appear to show vehicles and personnel moving, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said his country is yet to see any evidence of a significant removal of Russian forces. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, echoed this in a news conference on Wednesday when he said defence ministers have met to discuss the “continued” troop build up on the borders of Ukraine.

He said allies welcome all diplomatic efforts and says there are signs from Moscow that diplomacy could win through.

But, he added there are no signs of de-escalation or withdrawal of Russian troops.

Russia denies it has any plans to invade Ukraine, despite the fact more than 100,000 military personnel have massed at the country’s shared border.

Professor Julian Lindley-French, an internationally recognised strategic analyst and adviser in defence, who has worked with NATO, argues Moscow will want to invade soon in order to avoid the winter thaw.

Russia: Moscow will want to avoid the winter thaw, Express.co.uk has been told (Image: GETTY)

Jens Stoltenberg: The NATO chief said Russia is continuing to mass troops along its border

Jens Stoltenberg: The NATO chief said Russia is continuing to mass troops along its border (Image: GETTY)

When the weather changes and warms by a few degrees, conditions will become exceedingly difficult for heavily military vehicles and personnel to operate in.

Prof Lindley-French told Express.co.uk: “The next four weeks are crucial.

“One reason being that when the spring comes in Ukraine it becomes very muddy.

“Given the kind of manoeuvre forces that Putin would deploy in a multi-access, multi-domain attack, he needs to be mobile.

“He needs winter to maintain that mobility.”

JUST INPutin’s ‘real mother’ came forward: ‘Not reality’

US military: Troops arrive in Poland on Wednesday

US military: Troops arrive in Poland on Wednesday (Image: GETTY)

The geopolitics expert went on to discuss the logistics around a Russian invasion. He said: “They would suggest Putin could sustain an operation of large scale for about ten days — and that doesn’t suggest objectives that are really deep into Ukraine.”

Russia says it is simply defending its western border in the face of NATO expansion.

This week, there were suggestions Ukraine could drop its bid to become a NATO member in order to avoid war with Russia after the country’s ambassador to Britain, Vadym Prystaiko, told the BBC Ukraine was “flexible” over its membership goal.

When asked if Kyiv could change its position on NATO membership, Mr Prystaiko said: “We might – especially being threatened like that, blackmailed by that, and pushed to it.”

DON’T MISS

Russia fears full-blown ‘economic crisis’ – invasion threat diminished [REPORT] 
UK scores diplomatic masterstroke as Ukraine applaud support [INSIGHT] 
Falklands hit back at Argentina in furious new rebuke 
[ANALYSIS] 

NATO: Several thousand US troops were sent to bolster NATO's eastern flank

NATO: Several thousand US troops were sent to bolster NATO’s eastern flank (Image: GETTY)

Donbass: The region has been blighted by clashes since 2014

Donbass: The region has been blighted by clashes since 2014 (Image: GETTY)

However, a spokesperson for the country’s foreign minister has since dispelled the remarks, claiming Mr Prystaiko’s words were taken out of context.

Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Facebook: “Ambassador Prystaiko rightly noted in his interview that the prospect of Nato membership is established in the constitution of Ukraine, although Ukraine is currently not a member of NATO or any other security alliance.

“The key for us is the issue of security guarantees.

“Undoubtedly, the best such guarantee would be the alliance immediately accepting Ukraine. But the threats to Ukraine exist here and now, so the search for security guarantees becomes a fundamental and urgent task.

Military match: Russia has considerably more military manpower than Ukraine

Military match: Russia has considerably more military manpower than Ukraine (Image: Express Newspapers)

“At the same time, no decision can be made that contradicts the Ukrainian constitution.”

In 2008, Ukraine was promised, along with Georgia, that it would eventually be given the opportunity to join.

Later, in 2019, an amendment was adopted that enshrined the ultimate goal of Nato membership in Ukraine’s constitution.

Vadym Prystaiko: The official said Ukraine is not looking to shift in its bid to join NATO

Vadym Prystaiko: The official said Ukraine is not looking to shift in its bid to join NATO (Image: GETTY)

Mr Prystaiko later confirmed that his words had been mistaken, after he told the BBC: “No [Ukraine is not reconsidering its ambitions to join NATO] and I am quite happy that I have this chance to clarify my position.”

Asked again if Ukraine was shifting its bid to become a member, he said: “No.”



Source link