After the COVID-19 pandemic forced last year’s contest to be cancelled for the first time ever, this Saturday will see 26 countries battle it out in the returning grand final. Despite the eagerness to see where each country will place, the results may not be as much of a surprise as we may have thought.
Countries that take part in the competition are allowed a vote and since 2016, points from the televoting and the jury have been reported separately – massively increasing the overall points available and doubling the chances of picking up a maximum of 12 points.
According to the Reach Data Unit, it might be possible to predict how some countries will distribute their scores at the final.
The statistics are based on average points awarded by countries and chances of picking up 12 points are based on all the available opportunities to collect points, rather than final appearances.
Since 2000, Cyprus has awarded Greece the maximum points 73 percent of the time it has been eligible to vote, with Greece returning the favour 57 percent of the time.
Andorra, which last competed in 2009, gave Spain 12 points five times out of six.
The United Kingdom gives Greece top points most often, but only 17 percent of the time.
When it comes to who is most likely to vote for the UK, Australia is our best bet for the highly sought after 12 points – as they have given us this at 11 percent of eligible votes.
Since 2000, the biggest average scores have gone from Moldova to Romania – an average of 11.1 points, then 10.9 points from Cyprus to Greece and 10.5 points from Italy to Malta.
Since 2000, the UK has the lowest overall average score of any nation that has appeared in at least five finals, with 43.4.
San Marino is a close second to this, averaging 45.5 points per final they have appeared in.
In contrast, the highest average scorers since 2000 have been Bulgaria with an average of 311.3, North Macedonia (305.0) and Australia (252.6) – all of which have performed well across a small number of appearances, as opposed to countries that have scored a win amid years of less successful songs.
As the biggest contributors to the European Broadcasting Union, France, Germany, Spain, and the UK automatically get a place every year, with Italy joining this group in 2011.
For the first time since its Eurovision debut in 2015, Australia did not qualify for the final this year.
Use the gadget in this article to find out how countries usually vote – the analysis dates back to 2000 and only includes countries that have featured in the live final at least five times.