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The Taliban will hold the balance of power in Afghanistan by 2022, according to Barbara Kelemen, an Associate and the lead intelligence analyst for Asia at Dragonfly. 

Ms Kelemen said: “In the short term, the Taliban will further intensify its insurgency and expand its control in northern Afghanistan – a strategically important region for the Afghan government.

“This will weaken the government’s position further since it partially relies on the support of local warlords in the north.

“On current indications, by 2022, the military balance will have shifted in favour of the Taliban, particularly if the peace talks remain stalled.

“The outlook for the peace talks appears negative, not least because any power sharing agreement between the Kabul government and the group remains unlikely.

“The Taliban has repeatedly said it sees the current government as ‘illegitimate’ and there seems to be little incentive for it to enter into any type of agreement, at least for now.”

Ms Kelemen went on to say that she forecast Afghanistan becoming a more hostile environment for foreign organisations in the coming months.

“Kabul is likely to remain an extremely dangerous place for travel and business operations; terrorist attacks have become more frequent over the past few months with incidents occurring on a near-daily basis since 2020,” she added. 

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